But most countries have not yet seen the benefits of coronavirus vaccinations. Months after the global launch of the vaccine, the pace remains stunningly uneven, with rich countries leaving the poor in the dust. And they do not compete in a vacuum: the success of the former came at the expense of the latter. “It remains very much a zero-sum game, which means every dose goes to the United States or the United Kingdom,” said Andrea Taylor, a researcher at Duke University’s Global Health Innovation Center that tracks vaccines, or that a European Union country is a dose that is not available. On the shelves. ”“ The shelves will not be restocked for some time. ”The zero-sum nature of vaccine supplies boils down to the simple fact that manufacturers cannot meet demand yet. The potential consequences are wide-ranging. Undiluted proliferation can result in any country, wealthy or Poor, to variants that may be more virulent or vaccine-resistant. Willem Hanekom said: “As long as the epidemic continues and more viruses are spread, it is likely that more variants will emerge,” the director of the Institute for Health Research in Africa in South Africa, who was arrested earlier in This week, a vaccine developed at the University of Oxford and made by AstraZeneca was introduced this week after a study indicated that it may not be sufficiently effective against one of the species widely spread in the country. This requires, the greater the risk of mutations that could render the vaccines powerless. And, as is already apparently happening in South Africa, posing a threat to people everywhere and to the global economic recovery, said Ian Goldin, professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford, delaying the introduction of vaccines in poor countries is also likely to lead to a longer epidemic. , With more deadly human losses and a long-term economy. Some experts have urged wealthy nations to address the situation head-on, with a policy that is likely to find little domestic support: donating doses to countries that need them, before a full vaccination at home, and the idea is spreading among those who study global public health and inequality. Sima Sagire, an assistant professor at Harvard University and co-founder of the non-profit Sorgo Ventures, said the first focus should not be on vaccinating an entire country, but on working to vaccinate the most vulnerable people around the world. It is unfair for countries to impregnate their own populations – they must definitely meet local demand and open up local economies, ”Sgaier wrote in an email.“ But once every country reaches a threshold (for example, age groups and risks), it should There is some participation. ”Countries could also relax IP rules and move to ensure manufacturing resources are allocated to vaccines that are easy to store and transport. Until now, support for this way of thinking remains limited. Norway has offered a plan to donate vaccine overdoses. India, a major company To manufacture vaccines, it provides millions of doses to its neighbors. Mexico, despite recording the third worst death toll in the world, has limited its purchases of Pfizer vaccine after a request from the United Nations. But most countries have not detailed such plans, and the Biden administration has pledged to pursue the idea of The vials donated, but did not provide a timetable or other details. The United States will “establish a framework for providing surplus US government vaccine doses to countries,” a State Department spokesman said: “You need, as soon as sufficient supplies are available in the United States “. The government did not say how it would know the surplus given the frequency of vaccines, and the spokesperson said that the United States may consider donating overdoses through the Covax facility, a program supported by the World Health Organization that aims to ensure universal access to vaccines. The Biden administration has pledged to support the program, in which the Trump administration has not participated, and such a move could bolster Covax, which is designed to attract wealthy donors by placing foolproof orders among a host of vaccine manufacturers – avoiding the nation’s risks – level deals. So far, the initiative has struggled to find funding and pool supplies. “Not only did most rich countries not rely on Covax for their vaccines, [but] “ The portfolio approach these countries took in their advance procurement of vaccines consumed most of the resources and vaccine manufacturing capacity that might have gone to Kovacs otherwise, ” said Thomas J. Pollecky, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, speaking from South Africa. Struggling to make their own deals after the failure of Covax, Hanekom said many countries failed to see that vaccination is a fundamentally global issue. “Thinking we can protect our populations, when others are not? This approach, he said, carries incredible risks. Some countries have required more doses than they need to reach a full vaccination. By the end of January, Canada had arranged deals to acquire 338 million doses for its 38 million inhabitants – giving it a potential of 500 percent coverage, according to Taylor’s team at Duke. Kovacs announced last week that it plans to distribute 330 million doses to the poorest countries in the first half of the year, but that is still a fraction of the total number required. At the same time, rich countries that have their own supplies of vaccines, including Canada, are set to receive doses through Covax, and the effects and solutions of inequality in vaccines are not clearly defined. Canadian officials last week defended their decision to accept 1.9 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine by summer through Covax, arguing that their responsibility was to their own citizens first and foremost. Officials told the Washington Post in December that Canada would donate the overdoses, but they did not give a firm time frame. On impacts of global availability. Taylor said widespread pre-orders meant a “massive investment in manufacturing early in the process.” Rich countries may have helped stimulate more initial supplies, but “demand has always outpaced supply,” Taylor said. But the ceiling might rise eventually. Some drug manufacturers are moving their resources to support competitors after their candidate vaccines fail. In the US, some say supply may soon outpace demand. “The order will run out sooner than we think,” Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, said during an appearance on CNBC this week that vaccines made by Russia and China, despite initially being viewed with suspicion in the West, are really making a difference. In the world. Data compiled by the Think Global Health Project at the Council on Foreign Relations shows that these vaccines already account for much of the limited supply in middle- and low-income countries, and redistribution of doses to the world’s most vulnerable groups can help avert severe human losses and Taylor said purchases of manufactures have more time to meet global demand – which they may do by next year. But the very nature of the virus means that the schedule can and may change under our feet. World Health Organization officials suggested this week that the spread of virus variants may require annual vaccines or booster doses. This would completely change the image. “He blows everything out of the water,” said Taylor. “And I think that’s where we’re headed.” This report has been updated.